Digital Forums - Gamblers Anonymous https://dmnforums.com/ Horses/Dogs/Sports/Casinos/Fruit Machines - Whatever your gambling on, discuss it here. en Fri, 22 Apr 2024 10:07:11 GMT vBulletin 60 https://dmnforums.com/images/df20/misc/rss.png Digital Forums - Gamblers Anonymous https://dmnforums.com/ PUNCHESTOWN CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2024 <link>https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/993047-PUNCHESTOWN-CHAMPION-CHASE-TRENDS-2024?goto=newpost</link> <pubDate>Mon, 18 Apr 2024 17:06:29 GMT</pubDate> <description>The Boylesports Champion Chase is the highlight of the first day of the 2015 Punchestown Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 26th April. This year�s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, Sprinter Sacre, did the double in 2013 and might attempt it again this year. Below we take a look at...</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>The Boylesports Champion Chase is the highlight of the first day of the 2015 Punchestown Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 26th April. This year�s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, Sprinter Sacre, did the double in 2013 and might attempt it again this year.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Age (Win-Place-Runners)<br /> 6yo: 2-0-3<br /> 7yo: 1-1-6<br /> 8yo: 3-7-22<br /> 9yo: 1-3-23<br /> 10yo: 2-2-13<br /> 11yo+: 1-1-6<br /> 6yos have won the last 2 of the last 8 runnings of this race and failed to have a representative in the other 6 runnings since 2008.<br /> All 3 winners aged 10+ had previously won the Queen Mother and had run well in this race previously (Big Zeb & Sizing Europe (twice) had both finished in first 2 in this before winning this when aged 10+).<br /> <br /> Breeding<br /> <br /> <br /> Irish bred: 5-12-47<br /> French bred: 5-2-16<br /> British bred: 0-0-6<br /> Other: 0-0-4<br /> 10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred but younger French breds and older Irish bred horses have held the edge.<br /> French bred horses aged 6 to 8: 5-1-11<br /> French bred 9+: 0-1-5<br /> Irish bred 6 to 8: 1-7-15<br /> Irish bred 9+: 4-5-32<br /> <br /> <br /> 4 of 5 French bred winners began their NH career in an Auteuil Hurdle.<br /> <br /> Recent/Past Form<br /> <br /> <br /> 6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 others finished in first 6 in Queen Mother)<br /> 8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 158+ last time out<br /> <br /> <br /> 10 of 10 winners had run in the previous 50 days<br /> 10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase<br /> <br /> <br /> 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)<br /> 7 of 10 winners had won multiple grade 1 chases<br /> 10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season<br /> 9 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases that season (exception had won 1 grade 2 chase)<br /> 10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases (winning at least 4)<br /> 8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exception were previous Queen Mother Champion Chase winner that had previously finished in first 2 in this race)<br /> 9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 2F or further<br /> <br /> Other races<br /> <br /> <br /> Defending Punchestown Champion Chaser (Felix Yonger): 5P432 (0-1-5)<br /> Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 1121 (3-1-4)<br /> Paddy Power So Quick So Easy Chase winner (Flemenstar): 3211326 (2-3-7)<br /> Clarence House Chase winner (Un De Sceaux): 1R1 (2-0-3)<br /> Hilly Way Chase winner (Felix Younger): 314561 (2-0-6)<br /> Previous season's Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 221 (1-2-3)<br /> Tied Cottage Chase winner (Felix Yonger): 36P4123 (1-2-7)<br /> Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 4142 (1-1-4)<br /> Webster Cup winner (Smashing): 1 (1-0-1)<br /> Melling Chase winner (God's Own): 1 (1-0-1)<br /> Red Mills Chase winner (Smashing): 15 (1-0-2)<br /> Previous season's Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Un De Sceaux): 2F3 (0-1-3)<br /> Normans Grove Chase winner (Top Gamble): 2P7456 (0-1-6)<br /> Paddy Power Over 260 Shops Nationwide Chase winner (Days Hotel): 6434 (0-0-4)<br /> 8 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 16162214<br /> 4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 1111 (including all 3 GB winners)<br /> 3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power So Quick So Easy Chase, finishing 114<br /> 3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Tied Cottage, finishing 221<br /> 2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 22<br /> 3 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Ryanair Novice Chase, finishing 54<br /> 2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 11<br /> 2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase, finishing 11<br /> 2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing 11<br /> 3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in Clarence House Chase, finishing 211<br /> 2 of 3 British-trained winners won previous year's Maghulls Novice Chase<br /> <br /> Trainers<br /> <br /> <br /> British based trainers (3-2-14) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 18.3% of the total runners. All 3 had won the Tingle Creek & finished in first 2 in Clarence House Chase that season.<br /> Henry De Bromhead (2-3-7) has trained Sizing Europe to win this in 2012 & 2014 and be placed in 2010, 2011 & 2013.<br /> Willie Mullins (2-0-10) trained the winner in 2001, 2010 & 2015. <br /> Nicky Henderson (1-0-1) won this in 2013 with Sprinter Sacre, who is entered again.<br /> Mouse Morris (0-2-4) saddled the runner-up in 2006 & 2015.<br /> <br /> Price<br /> <br /> <br /> 9 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or below<br /> All 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting.<br /> Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10 but show a �1 level stakes loss of �1.22.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Summary:<br /> <br /> <br /> Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:<br /> <br /> <br /> - French bred aged 6 to 8 or Irish bred aged 9+<br /> - Run in the past 50 days<br /> - Won last time out (or finished 2nd to 6th in Queen Mother)<br /> - Posted an RPR of 166+ last time<br /> - Won a grade 1 chase (preferably multiple grade 1�s)<br /> - Has run 3 to 5 times season, winning at least twice<br /> - Run at least 8 times over fences, winning at least four<br /> - Second or third season chaser (or previous Queen Mother winner)<br /> - Finished in the first 6 in the Queen Mother Champion Chase<br /> - Won the Tingle Creek, Hilly Way, Gowran Champion and/or PP So Quick So Easy Chase<br /> - Finished in first 2 in Tied Cottage and/or Clarence House Chase<br /> - Won a chase over 2M 2F+<br /> - Trained in Britain or by Willie Mullins or Henry De Bromhead<br /> - Priced 7/1 or lower.</div> ]]></content:encoded> <category domain="https://dmnforums.com/forumdisplay.php/372-Gamblers-Anonymous">Gamblers Anonymous</category> <dc:creator>ganjaman2</dc:creator> <guid isPermaLink="true">https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/993047-PUNCHESTOWN-CHAMPION-CHASE-TRENDS-2024 </item> <item> <title>Ayr Saturday 16/4/2024 <link>https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/992993-Ayr-Saturday-16-4-2024?goto=newpost</link> <pubDate>Sat, 16 Apr 2024 08:00:20 GMT</pubDate> <description>1.50 Ayr � The Weatherbys Private Bank Novices� Limited Handicap Chase. What looked likely to be a cracking contest has disappointed somewhat with the entries cutting up but that could play straight into the hands of VIVALDI COLLONGES. The seven-year-old has taken a while to get his act...</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>1.50 Ayr � The Weatherbys Private Bank Novices� Limited Handicap Chase.<br /> <br /> <br /> What looked likely to be a cracking contest has disappointed somewhat with the entries cutting up but that could play straight into the hands of VIVALDI COLLONGES. The seven-year-old has taken a while to get his act together but showed at Warwick last time that he may just be starting to get the hang of things. His first season chasing was a bit of a right off, running in a couple small field novice events before being pitched in at the deep end in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. His second season has proven a different proposition altogether, landing a valuable Kelso handicap on his seasonal debut before blowing away his two rivals at Warwick last time out. He can be forgiven for his well beaten fifth in an attritional heavy ground Classic Chase in between and arrives here on only a 1lb higher mark than that day. Carrying top weight won�t be an easy task by any means but he could prove to be a class apart from the rest of the field here.<br /> <br /> <br /> Subtle Grey has been in good heart this year and can be forgiven his latest effort in the Midlands National. He rarely runs a bad race and had finished in the frame on every start under rules until heading to Uttoxeter last month. However, he has shown a propensity to lose interest on the run-in and although holding on well at Carlisle back in February, the way he idled was a bit of a worry. Most of his best form has been in a real slog so any extra rain would certainly suit him and he looks likely to run into a place.<br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> VIVALDI COLLONGES � 1pt win @ 7/2 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 2.25 Ayr � Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices� Chase (Grade 2) <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Even though the market has found him (6/4 favourite), BRISTOL DE MAI is clearly the horse with the most ability in this field � ground conditions and trip look to be absolutely spot on for him and if he can get back to his bold-jumping best from the front, he�ll certainly be a tough nut to crack. His second to Black Hercules in the JLT was an excellent effort considering he had to battle back from a mistake at the third last and being just fourth at the final fence � he had plenty of very useful types in behind that day too.<br /> <br /> <br /> Harry Fry�s eight-year-old, Henryville is his nearest rival in the market and his defeat of Golden Doyen at Exeter in a novices� chase looks decent form with Thomas Crapper back in third. He hasn�t been tested at anywhere near this level yet though and it may be that the ground is too soft for him to show his best, so while he�s clearly a promising chaser, there could be other days for him.<br /> <br /> <br /> Le Mercurey sports first-time blinkers here for Paul Nicholls and if they can sharpen him up, especially in the six-year-old�s resolution department, he could be a sleeper in the race. This is a horse that travels well through his races up to a point and then seems to drop out tamely quite often, so you would think the drop to two and a half miles on softish ground would be good for him. However, the yard seem to think he�s a three miler if he can get his application right, so this could be too sharp a test.<br /> <br /> <br /> Dan Skelton�s yard has hit some good form recently and he�s represented by Pain Au Chocolat in this. The five-year-old�s defeat of Aso reads pretty well, but on a line through Golden Doyen, who he was 15 lengths behind on chasing debut, he�s got plenty to find with Henryville, let alone Bristol De Mai.<br /> Otago Trail is a bit of an enigma for Venetia Williams, one day looking very good and the next dropping out tamely, as in the Mildmay at Aintree, while Killala Quay is tough and consistent, but has plenty to find with a few at this level.<br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> BRISTOL DE MAI � 3pts win @ 11/10 (General)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 3.00 Ayr � The QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Undoubtedly, the Willie Mullins pair will prove to be all the rage as they both arrive here in good form. Ivan Grozny carries a 5lb penalty for his win at Aintree last week and is officially 5lb well in after being reassessed by the handicappers. However, although he clearly looks to be back on track, it will be a tough ask to follow up just seven days later and he has pretty much been on the go since the middle of January having had nearly two years off the track. This will be his fifth race in under three months and it may be the case that he had his time last week.<br /> <br /> <br /> Clondaw Warrior looked to be right back to his best when an easy winner at Fairyhouse at the end of March and although 12lb higher now, must come into serious consideration. He enjoyed his best season on the level last year, landing the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and Guinness Handicap at the Galway Festival and finishing a narrow second in the Doncaster Cup and is a major player here off a career-high mark.<br /> <br /> <br /> However, a speculative chance is taken on CONNETABLE bouncing back to form. It is no easy task for a four-year-old to come here and take on the older horses but the 5lb age concession he receives will certainly come in handy and he has proven that he can mix it with his elders when landing the Listed Contenders Hurdle at Sandown back in February. His below-par effort in the Triumph was slightly troubling but he wouldn�t be the first horse not to act on Cheltenham�s undulations and he certainly won�t be the last. The return to a flatter track will surely help and I think he is overpriced for what looks to be a fairly sub-standard renewal.<br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> CONNETABLE � 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (bet365)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 3.35 Ayr � Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> This next race looks a tight one with just seven runners and one horse who must have a place on the shortlist is Solar Impulse who seemed to benefit from the fitting of blinkers for the first time when winning the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. Whether the aids will work for a second time in quick succession it is hard to know but the six-year-old has always been highly thought of by the yard and it would be no surprise to see him run well again off a 9lb higher mark. His form suggests he would probably prefer the ground a little quicker than it is likely to be on Saturday but he should still be thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.<br /> <br /> <br /> He does carry a lot of weight however and it may be worth looking towards the foot of the weights for an improving performer. One such horse could be Tom George�s ALWAYS ON THE RUN who was only fourth on his chasing debut in December, but has since won twice dropped back to two miles. The latest of those efforts saw him make all in the hands of Paddy Brennan and despite the odd jumping error, he won with a bit up his sleeve at the line. He is clearly on the improve and a 4lb rise shouldn�t be enough to halt his progression. He has won on ground ranging from good to soft so that shouldn�t hold any fears for him and in his current form, he looks the one to beat.<br /> <br /> <br /> His biggest danger could come from Ultragold who has won his last two starts over two miles, most recently winning going away from his rivals at Newbury. He also acquitted himself well Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in February over 2m4f and looks far from badly handicapped at present. The Tizzard yard are in great form of late and he can�t be safely ruled out in the hands of promising conditional Harry Cobden.<br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ALWAYS ON THE RUN � 1pt win @ 11/4 (Sky Bet)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 4.10 Ayr � Coral Scottish Grand National (HANDICAP RACE) <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> A well-trodden path for horses who exit the Aintree Grand National early on is to head here for some compensation a week later. In terms of trends, it looks something of a difficult task when you consider that the last horse to complete the double in the same year was Red Rum in 1974. More recently, horses who have run at Aintree and then lined up here have a poor record with no winner of the race in the last decade. However, we don�t have to worry about that here as this year, for the first time in a few years none of the early departees come here bidding for redemption.<br /> <br /> <br /> One of the stronger trends associated with this race is that nine of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers to date. The extreme distance that the race is run over often tests the concentration levels of horses and therefore a good jumper can often get themselves out of trouble when required. There are seven members of this year�s field whose previous record may cause some concern with Top Wood, Goodtoknow, Golden Chieftain, Pineau De Re, Milborough, Tour Des Champs and Sun Cloud all needing to put in their best rounds to have any chance here.<br /> <br /> <br /> An equally strong trend is that a first three finish on their most recent start is something that seven of the last ten winners have all had in common. This suggests that horses in form do tend to run well here despite the fact that they may carry a little more weight in this handicap. Just less than half of this year�s field qualify on this score including the likes of Cause of Causes, Masters Hill, Highland Lodge and Berea Boru.<br /> <br /> <br /> It may seem obvious given the distance of four miles and half a furlong, that horses with proven stamina are often successful. In fact eight of the last ten winners all had a victory over 3m 2f or further to their name prior to running in this race. There are eleven horses in this year�s renewal who fall at this particular hurdle with the likes of Seeyouatmidnight, Vyta Du Roc and Top Wood all arriving with question marks over their stamina and if any race is likely to exploit any such weakness, the Scottish Grand National is that race.<br /> <br /> <br /> In terms of weight, history tells us that this is not a race in which big weights are carried to victory. Godsmejudge carried 11st 3lb to victory in 2013 but the other nine winners in the last decade, all carried less than 11st. This would suggest that it is best to focus our attention on the horses with lower weights and if we apply that to this year�s field, we can eliminate the top ten as they appear on the racecard, from Cause of Causes down to Top Wood.<br /> <br /> <br /> A major negative for potential contenders is if a horse is aged seven or younger, as before Godsmejudge landed the race three years ago, you have to go back to Gingembre in 2001 to find the last seven-year-old winner. In the last decade, eight, nine and eleven-year-olds have accounted for eight of the last ten winners so older horses should definitely be followed. There are five seven-year-olds in this year�s field, with Vicente, Vyta Du Roc, Gold Futures, A Good Skin and Straidnahanna hoping to emulate Alan King�s last winner of the race.<br /> <br /> <br /> A final factor worthy of consideration is the poor record that favourites have in the Scottish Grand National. There have been no winning-favourites in the last decade and only two of the most recent winners went off at single figure SPs. Obviously the market is subject to fluctuations between now and the off but this looks to be a race in which a chance can be taken on a lively outsider so supporters of the joint-favourites Cause Of Causes and Measureofmydreams may be better off looking elsewhere.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Shortlist<br /> <br /> <br /> HIGHLAND LODGE � 7/7<br /> <br /> <br /> Heathfield � 7/7<br /> <br /> <br /> Midnight Prayer � 6/7<br /> <br /> <br /> Alvarado � 6/7<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Conclusion<br /> <br /> <br /> We have two horses who on the trends at least appear to have perfect records with slight preference for HIGHLAND LODGE who was last seen winning the Becher Chase at Aintree in December. Connections were disappointed that he didn�t get into the Aintree Grand National this week but must be hopeful that he can run another big race off a 5lb higher mark. He is fairly lightly-raced for a ten-year-old and having run well over four miles in the past, I don�t think the trip will be an issue. He likes to be ridden prominently so we are likely to get a bold sight out in front and it will just be a case of whether anything can get past him.<br /> <br /> <br /> Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Tony Martin�s Heathfield who has mixed hurdles and fences since winning a valuable Punchestown handicap over 3m6f last Spring. He failed to show much form in his first few starts this season but bounced back to win impressively over hurdles a couple of weeks ago. The nine-year-old seems to come into form at this time of year and given the stable from which he resides, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up on Saturday afternoon.<br /> There are a host of contenders who miss just the one trend but one who catches the eye is Alan King�s Midnight Prayer who won the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival a couple of years ago. He was a close second at Warwick in January before finishing alone at Exeter next time and probably just found the ground too lively at Cheltenham on his latest outing. Having finished seventh, that is the only trend he has to overcome but he otherwise looks to boast a strong profile.<br /> <br /> <br /> The final member of the shortlist is Alavarado who has finished fourth in two Aintree Grand Nationals and didn�t make the cut for this year�s renewal. He has won over 3m4f at Cheltenham in the past so is no stranger to this sort of stamina test and he gets in here with very little weight on his back. He could only finish eighth on his latest outing but his form suggests that he tends to improve for his first run of the campaign so I am happy to forgive him that effort. He is likely to be staying on when some of the others have cried enough and he could be another lively outsider.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> HIGHLAND LODGE � 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, William Hill)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 4.45 Ayr � Ayrshire Hospice Land O� Burns Starlight Walk Handicap Hurdle.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> This looks an extremely competitive handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs, so ideally we�re looking for something with plenty of stamina and plenty of juice in their mark.<br /> <br /> <br /> One such horse that seems to fit the criteria well is Warren Greatrex�s Missed Approach. Despite having the excuse of going up 20lbs for his dominant win at Newbury, he was very disappointing at Cheltenham in the Pertemps Final and it was surely too bad to be true as he was struggling before the seventh hurdle. He was very well backed before the race and there�s surely better in the tank from this horse. It could well be his last hurrah over timber as he�s due to go chasing next year, so there�s nothing to lose by going all out here.<br /> <br /> <br /> Willie Mullins attempts to top up his lead in the British trainers championship by sending over ARBRE DE VIE, a five-length tenth in the Coral Cup at the Festival. That doesn�t tell the whole story though as he was held up way in rear of the contest, before running on strongly at the end. If he�s given a bit more positive ride here by Paul Townend, he could run a big race off the same mark and even though he is carrying top weight 11st 12lb, this race has been won by horses carrying more than 11st 5lb seven times in the last ten years.<br /> <br /> <br /> Two Taffs has been consistently promising this season for Dan Skelton, finishing placed in four consecutive competitive hurdle races, most lately the EBF Final at Sandown Park, where he was a five length fourth. The way he stayed on at the end there, he looked like he�ll appreciate this extra furlong and the ground should hold no fears. A mark of 129 could well be generous and it�s easy to see why he�s favourite with many bookmakers. However, his lack of wins is a concern and a pattern is emerging from his races: �stayed on well but held.� It could be that he�s one that needs everything to fall just right for him and at his current price; I�d want to take him on.<br /> <br /> <br /> Brian Ellison has two in the race and judging by jockey bookings, Eshtiaal is the big hope with Barry Geraghty booked for the ride. The six-year-old has flipped between flat racing and going over hurdles with success, but the big worry here is the ground � he�s undoubtedly a good ground horse, so it could be best to focus on his other runner.<br /> <br /> <br /> Forest Bihan is that horse and the five-year-old has some decent placed form in competitive events. Last time out, his third place in the Greatwood at Newbury was a good effort and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb, the first time he�s relented since he first ran in Britain, coincidentally also at Ayr. Brian Ellison really likes the horse and he could be worth some each-way interest.<br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> ARBRE DE VIE � 2pts win @ 9/2 (Bet365)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 5.20 Ayr � Ortus Homes Racing Excellence �Hands And Heels� Finale Handicap Hurdle.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> The �hands and heels� race looks another competitive affair despite the small field and Alcala must appear high on any shortlist having finished a good third in the EBF Final at Sandown last month. He has been highly-tried in his career to date but ran well in that particular contest and doesn�t look to be too unfairly treated on his current mark of 127. Harry Cobden, who rode him at Sandown stays aboard for this engagement and with Paul Nicholls chasing the Trainer�s title, he will be keen to have any winner possible.<br /> <br /> <br /> James Moffatt�s Amuse Me has been in the form of his life this term winning three times, but hasn�t been seen since winning for the third time in quick succession at Sedgefield at the end of October. He was hit with an 11lb penalty for that latest success but has gone well fresh in the past and can�t be ruled out if returning in the same form as he was when we last saw him.<br /> <br /> <br /> However, the one to focus on could be Dan Skelton�s OLDGRANGEWOOD who may have made hard work of his success here in February but should appreciate stepping up in trip to 2m4f. The five-year-old won an Irish point this time last year and ran in some competitive races on his first two starts for the yard. Point-to-point rider Jack Andrews gets the leg up on him here and I fancy him to extend his winning sequence upped in trip.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> OLDGRANGEWOOD � 1pt win @ 100/30 (Paddy Power)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 5.50 Ayr � Skyform Group Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> This is a fairly ordinary-looking bumper on the face of it, but then you scan down the roll of honour and see the name Sprinter Sacre there in 2010 � he even went off at 11/4 � so it�s not beyond the realms of possibility that there will be a useful one in here.<br /> <br /> <br /> A key piece of form here could well be the race that Brian Ellison�s Ballycrystal won at Doncaster in February, where he beat Man O�Words by three lengths off level-weights. Ellison�s horse now carries a 6lb penalty for that win and it�s reasonable to think that Tom Lacey�s charge can reverse the form simply with that, but when you consider it was also Man O�Words� first visit to the racetrack, the probable improvement could seal the deal. Both of those horses look stayers in the making and will appreciate the better-run contest that they should get here.<br /> <br /> <br /> There are two other winners in the field, starting with Nicky Richards� Reivers Lad who won in soft ground at Carlisle in March. The form of that race doesn�t look that strong though, so he could be one to pass over. MERE IRONMONGER is the other winner and Brendan Powell�s four year-old looks a very interesting prospect. He�s by Galileo for a start, a half-brother to Bayan who became a smart hurdler and cost 280,000 guineas as a yearling, so there�s clearly plenty there in his pedigree at the very least. He was given a cracking ride by Harry Skelton on his debut at Kempton to steal the race from the front from a decent-looking field including representatives from the Henderson, King, Nicholls, Fry and Tizzard yards. He gets the four-year-old�s allowance here, so the penalty for his win isn�t such a burden compared to five-year-olds Ballycrystal and Reivers Lad and if he�s improved since that run at Kempton, he has to hold great claims here.<br /> <br /> <br /> Paul Nicholls has an interesting debutant in the field in the form of Gibbes Bay, who is a son of Al Namix, sire of Saphir Du Rheu and Grandouet amongst others. He gets weight from nearly all his rivals here and if he�s tuned up to go first-time-out, he could be a threat coming from his top yard.<br /> <br /> <br /> Advice<br /> <br /> <br /> MERE IRONMONGER � 1pt win @ 3/1(SkyBet)</div> ]]></content:encoded> <category domain="https://dmnforums.com/forumdisplay.php/372-Gamblers-Anonymous">Gamblers Anonymous</category> <dc:creator>ganjaman2</dc:creator> <guid isPermaLink="true">https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/992993-Ayr-Saturday-16-4-2024 </item> <item> <title>SCOTTISH CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2024 <link>https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/992965-SCOTTISH-CHAMPION-HURDLE-TRENDS-2024?goto=newpost</link> <pubDate>Fri, 15 Apr 2024 09:22:56 GMT</pubDate> <description>The QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle takes place at Ayr on Saturday, 16th April, on the supporting card of the Scottish Grand National. Unlike its Cheltenham equivalent, the Scottish Champion Hurdle is a grade 2 handicap, which means less classy hurdlers are given a chance to taste glory in the race,...</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>The QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle takes place at Ayr on Saturday, 16th April, on the supporting card of the Scottish Grand National. Unlike its Cheltenham equivalent, the Scottish Champion Hurdle is a grade 2 handicap, which means less classy hurdlers are given a chance to taste glory in the race, and higher rated horses have found it tough to concede weight in this in the past 10 years.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Age (Win-Place-Runners)<br /> 4yo: 0-1-4<br /> 5yo: 3-7-27<br /> 6yo: 4-3-24<br /> 7yo: 1-6-28<br /> 8yo: 0-2-10<br /> 9yo: 2-1-13<br /> 10yo+: 0-1-5<br /> horses aged 4 to 6: 7-10-55<br /> horses aged 7 or older: 3-10-56<br /> 3 of last 4 winners aged 8+ had previously won a handicap hurdle worth 50K+ and all 4 had made the places in a graded handicap hurdle in one of last two starts.<br /> <br /> Weight (Win-Place-Runners)<br /> <br /> <br /> horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-9-43<br /> horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-12-68<br /> horses carrying lower weights are strongly favoured. There has only been one winner who carried 11-0 or more and that was in 2012 when 7 of 10 runners carried 11-0+. Both winners to carry 10-10+ finished in first 3 in Betfair Hurdle that season. <br /> Top Weight: 97946F3343P (0-3-11) has a poor record in this, gaining just 3 places from 11 runners despite representing the favourite in 3 of last 10 runnings.<br /> <br /> Official Ratings (based on horses� actual ratings not on what they ran off)<br /> horses rated 145 or higher: 1-6-31<br /> horses rated 134 to 144: 8-13-66<br /> horses rated 133 or lower: 1-2-14<br /> horses officially rated 139 to 146 have won 8 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 5.<br /> The only year a horse rated below 134 to win it was Overturn, in 2010, off a mark of 130. He was having only his 7th run over hurdles and was clearly very well in on the day, especially considering he placed in the race the following year off 30lbs higher.<br /> <br /> Recent/Past Form<br /> <br /> <br /> 10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since August 1st<br /> <br /> <br /> 8 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days<br /> 10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts (8 did so last time)<br /> 10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts (4 won last time)<br /> 10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers<br /> 3 of 10 winners had run in a novice hurdle that season<br /> 10 of 10 winners had 4 to 14 previous hurdles starts<br /> 10 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap hurdles<br /> 10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles<br /> 5 of 5 winners that ran on flat were rated 87+ on the level<br /> 4 of 5 winners that made debut under NH rules had won a bumper (other made debut in a listed novice hurdle in France)<br /> <br /> Other Races<br /> <br /> <br /> Highest place finisher from previous Scottish Champion Hurdle to return: 6873523 (0-3-7)<br /> Farmhouse Foods H'cap Hurdle winner (Clondaw Warrior): 1 (1-0-1)<br /> The Ladbroke winner (Sternrubin): 471 (1-0-3)<br /> Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle winner (Ivan Grozny): 02 (0-1-2)<br /> Scottish County Hurdle winner (Shrewd): 468 (0-0-3)<br /> 3 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 208<br /> 2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Hurdle, finishing 32<br /> 2 of 10 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 40<br /> 2 of 10 winners ran in the Ladbroke Hurdle, finishing 01<br /> <br /> Previous season�s Anniversary Hurdle<br /> <br /> <br /> The grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous season�s Aintree Festival has proved an amazingly good guide to this race. Since 2005, 8 of 13 horses that ran in the previous season�s Anniversary Hurdle made the places in this race the following season.<br /> Anniversary Hurdle winner (All Yours): 24 (0-1-2)<br /> Highest placed finisher from previous season's Anniversary Hurdle: 23312476 (1-4-8)<br /> Record horses that ran in previous season's Anniversary Hurdle: 321331247064 (2-5-12)<br /> 2 of 3 winners aged 5 ran in previous season's Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 93 (the other won a 2M class 2 handicap hurdle at previous year's Aintree Festival)<br /> <br /> Trainers<br /> <br /> <br /> Philip Hobbs (2-0-7) trained the winner in 2006 & 2015.<br /> Paul Nicholls (1-4-12) has gained 1 win and 4 places from his 12 runners since 2006.<br /> Evan Williams (1-1-3) & Alan King (1-0-7) trained the winners in 2013 & 2012 respectively.<br /> Nicky Henderson (0-2-11) has gained just 2 places from his 11 runners (7 were sent off shorter than 7/1) and he saddled the last 2 beaten favourites.<br /> Irish trained runners (1-1-6) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 6 runners.<br /> <br /> Racing Tactics<br /> <br /> <br /> 7 of 10 winners were held up<br /> 2 of 10 winners trackers leaders<br /> 1 of 10 winners made all (Overturn in 2010)<br /> <br /> Price<br /> No very strong trends on prices for this race, the one big shock was Border Castle at 40/1 in 2008.<br /> Favourites (2-5-11) have gained 2 wins & 5 places, showing a level stakes loss of 2.25.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Summary:<br /> <br /> <br /> Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:<br /> <br /> <br /> - Aged 6 or a 5yo that ran in the 2015 Anniversary Hurdle<br /> - Carrying 10-11 or less<br /> - Officially rated 139 to 146<br /> - Run 3 to 6 times since 1st August 2015<br /> - Ran in past 40 days<br /> - Posted an RPR of 135+ in one or both of last 2 starts<br /> - Finished in first 3 in one or both of last 2 starts<br /> - 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdler (novice hurdlers have done well)<br /> - Run in 9 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 3)<br /> - Officially rated 87+ on the flat (or won a bumper)<br /> - Finished in first 4 in County, Betfair and/or Swinton Hurdle <br /> - Hold-up horses favoured<br /> - Trained by Philip Hobbs or Evan Williams.</div> ]]></content:encoded> <category domain="https://dmnforums.com/forumdisplay.php/372-Gamblers-Anonymous">Gamblers Anonymous</category> <dc:creator>ganjaman2</dc:creator> <guid isPermaLink="true">https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/992965-SCOTTISH-CHAMPION-HURDLE-TRENDS-2024 </item> <item> <title>SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2024 <link>https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/992933-SCOTTISH-GRAND-NATIONAL-TRENDS-2024?goto=newpost</link> <pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2024 07:42:15 GMT</pubDate> <description>The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday 16th April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M �F. It often pays to avoid horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National, especially where there has only been a 7 day gap between the 2 races. Below we take a look...</description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday 16th April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M �F. It often pays to avoid horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National, especially where there has only been a 7 day gap between the 2 races.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Age (Win-Place-Runners)<br /> 6yo: 0-3-10<br /> 7yo: 1-9-45<br /> 8yo: 2-6-57<br /> 9yo: 3-3-54<br /> 10yo: 1-5-48<br /> 11yo+: 3-4-44<br /> Age of the winners has been fairly spread out.<br /> In 2009 Hello Bud (aged 11) became the first horse aged over 10 to won the race since 1996. Merigo followed up that feat when winning the race for a second time in 2012, also at age 11, while Wayward Lad made it three 11yo winners in last 7 years, when taking it in 2015. All three 11yo winners won on their last start over a trip in excess of 3M, all 3 posting an RPR of 140 in the process.<br /> <br /> Breeding<br /> <br /> <br /> French Bred: 4-7-62<br /> Irish Bred: 3-18-142<br /> British Bred: 3-4-48<br /> American Bred: 0-1-3<br /> Other: 0-0-3<br /> French & GB bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from less than 43% of total runners.<br /> <br /> Weight (Win-Place-Runners)<br /> <br /> <br /> horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 0-1-20<br /> horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-3-14<br /> horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 1-10-58<br /> horses carrying 10-0 to 10-6: 6-13-131<br /> horses carrying 9-13 or less: 2-3-35<br /> 8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, though they represented 64.3% of total runners.<br /> Top Weight: 0P2PP6PP7P (0-1-10)<br /> The 2 top weights to make the frame since 2004 had both previously finished in first 5 in this race.<br /> horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-11-97<br /> 2 of last 3 horses to have carried a penalty in this have won it, the other unseated.<br /> <br /> Official Ratings<br /> <br /> <br /> horses rated 144 or higher: 1-7-48<br /> horses rated 132 to 143: 7-21-165<br /> horses rated 131 or below: 2-2-41<br /> 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower<br /> In past 4 years, horses rated 132 to 140 have won all 4 and filled 13 of 16 places.<br /> The last 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out, and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start but only carried 10-4. Both had posted a career high RPR of 149+ on previous start.<br /> <br /> Recent/Past Form<br /> <br /> <br /> 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (exception unplaced over hurdles last time)<br /> 9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 137+ in or all of their last 3 completed chase starts<br /> 8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M 4F+ (2 exceptions did so in a 3M+ chase)<br /> 9 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days<br /> 10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season<br /> <br /> <br /> 8 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (2 exceptions placed in a chase worth 45K+)<br /> 10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 to 4 chase but no higher in past 18 months<br /> 10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+<br /> 8 of 10 winners had run in 10 to 22 chases (2 exceptions placed in 4M Novice Chase at Cheltenham Festival)<br /> 2 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (7 others were having first course start)<br /> 10 of 10 winners had first career run in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race<br /> <br /> Aintree Festival<br /> <br /> <br /> In the last 10 years 20 horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, finishing PPP000PU695P00PPP77 (0-0-19). All 19 were unplaced.<br /> Since 2000 2 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, on both those occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals, unlike this year, where there is just a one week gap.<br /> <br /> Other Races<br /> <br /> <br /> Somerset National winner (Golden Chieftain): 1 (1-0-1)<br /> 7bets4free Novice Chase winner (Vivaldi Collonges): 1F (1-0-2)<br /> Previous season's 4M NH Novice Chase winner (Cause Of Causes): F1U (1-0-3)<br /> Welsh Grand National winner (Mountainous): 7P (0-0-2)<br /> Betfair Home Of Price Rush H'cap Chase winner (Emperor's Choice): PP (0-0-2)<br /> Murphy Group Handicap Chase winner (Sausalito Sunrise): PP (0-0-2)<br /> Record of first 3 from 4M NH Challenge Cup Novice Chase: PP1P16 (2-0-6)<br /> Highest placed finisher from last year's race to return: 040221P27 (1-4-9)<br /> Record of placed finishers from previous Scottish National: 0UP62071PP (1-1-12)<br /> The Weatherbys Private Banking Novice H'cap Chase has thrown up some horses that have run well in this, in 2008 it was won by Merigo (Scottish National winner in 2010 & 2012) and in 2010 it was won by Auroras Encore (2012 Scottish National runner-up).<br /> 2 of 2 novice chaser winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase, finishing 23<br /> 2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31<br /> 2 of 10 winners ran in Grimthorpe Chase, finishing 61<br /> 2 of 10 winners ran in Cash Out in Running on Betfair H'cap Chase, finishing 7P<br /> Since 2000 three winners had finished in first 7 in that season�s Hennessy Gold Cup<br /> <br /> Trainers<br /> <br /> <br /> Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-4-10) trained the winner in 1992 & 1994 and more recently in 2009. He has seen 5 of his 10 runners in past 10 years make the places.<br /> Alan King (1-3-11) trained Godsmejudge to win this in 2013 and also finish 2nd last year. He also saddled the 2nd & 4th in 2008. <br /> Peter Bowen (1-1-12) won this with Al Co in 2014.<br /> Philip Hobbs (0-3-10) has seen 3 of his 10 runners get placed.<br /> David Pipe (0-2-11) in 2 of the last 3 renewals. <br /> Jonjo O�Neill (0-1-3), Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-5), Tom George (0-1-4), Venetia Williams (0-1-12) & Sue Smith (0-1-12) have all saddled a placed finisher since 2006.<br /> Paul Nicholls (0-1-16) has saddled several fancied runners in the past 10 years, yet he has not won the race and only gained 1 place from 16 runners.<br /> Irish trained runners: F000BP8PF8P0PP9PP02 (0-1-19) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 19 runners since 2006. Last Irish-trained winner was back in 1869, though Goonyella (2nd in 2015) went close to breaking that barren spell last year. <br /> Tony Martin (0-0-1) trained the runner-up in 1999 and his one runner in past 10 years was Patsy Hall (brought down).<br /> <br /> Racing Tactics<br /> <br /> <br /> 2 of 10 winners made all (or virtually all)<br /> 3 of 10 winners ran behind the leader(s)<br /> 2 of 10 winners raced in midfield<br /> 3 of 10 winners were held up<br /> 4 of 10 winners led from before halfway.<br /> <br /> Price<br /> <br /> <br /> No strong trends on prices, there have been a few big shocks in past 10 years with a 25/1 winner in 2015, 40/1 winner in 2014, 66/1 winner in 2008 and 33/1 in 2006.<br /> Favourite (0-4-14) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Summary:<br /> <br /> <br /> Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:<br /> <br /> <br /> - Aged 7 to 9 (or a 10/11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 139+)<br /> - French & GB bred horses have done well recently<br /> - Carrying 10-6 or less<br /> - Officially rated 143 or lower (ideally rated 132 to 140)<br /> - Respect any horse carrying a penalty<br /> - Run 3 to 6 times this season<br /> - Finished in the first 6 last time<br /> - Posted an RPR of 140+ in one or all of last 3 chase starts<br /> - Won over 3M+<br /> - Posted their career high RPR of 140+ in a chase over 3M 4F+<br /> - Won a class 2 or 3 chase in last 18 months but no higher<br /> - Won a chase worth �15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)<br /> - Run in 10 to 22 chases (or placed in the 4M novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)<br /> - Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)<br /> - Had first career start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race<br /> - Bypassed 2024 Aintree Grand National<br /> - Respect horses that finished in first 7 in this season�s Hennessy Gold Cup<br /> - Ran in the Grimthorpe, 4M NH Novice Chase or Somerset National last time<br /> - Trained in Great Britain (ideally by N Twiston-Davies, P Hobbs or A King)</div> ]]></content:encoded> <category domain="https://dmnforums.com/forumdisplay.php/372-Gamblers-Anonymous">Gamblers Anonymous</category> <dc:creator>ganjaman2</dc:creator> <guid isPermaLink="true">https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/992933-SCOTTISH-GRAND-NATIONAL-TRENDS-2024 </item> <item> <title>Grand National Aintree bets and Predictions https://dmnforums.com/showthread.php/992791-Grand-National-Aintree-bets-and-Predictions?goto=newpost Sat, 09 Apr 2024 11:48:29 GMT Having been brought up in and around Aintree,it all comes down to luck and guts There is no definate winner amongst the 40 odd horse race,circumstances of loose horrses ,the ground conditions or just the nervousness of the horse on the day can effect the race. My predictions are all outsiders... Having been brought up in and around Aintree,it all comes down to luck and guts
There is no definate winner amongst the 40 odd horse race,circumstances of loose horrses ,the ground conditions or just the nervousness of the horse on the day can effect the race.

My predictions are all outsiders as its anyones race : this moring I placed bets on 5 horses

All just for fun bets I am no Racing pundit I placed �2 EW BET ON ALL HORSES

Good Luck to all and most of all ENJOY the Atmosphere


Aachen 100/1
Aachen

Jockey: H Brooke Trainer: V Williams Age: 12 Weight: 10st 10lb
Veteran has been better than ever this season, making all to win at Wincanton and Cheltenham in December. That run came to an end when collared by Soll at Sandown in January and he has fared much less well in two runs since, on drier ground, being beaten more than 40 lengths each time. Hard to believe he can win this from a career-high mark at the end of a tough season.


Boston Bob 33/1

Boston Bob

Jockey: P Townend Trainer: WP Mullins Age: 11 Weight: 10st 10lb

The winner of three Grade Ones over fences, although none of those looks especially strong in retrospect. Soundly beaten in the very best races but his rating remained artificially high until he was also stuffed in a couple of handicaps this season. Now seems on a fairer mark and won a decent trial race at Fairyhouse last time. Stamina could be a weak point, despite two successes at around three miles.




Gilgamboa 40/1
Gilgamboa

Jockey: R Power Trainer: E Bolger Age: Eight Weight: 11st 1lb
Still sailing along below many a radar despite a career record of six wins from 14 starts. Been restricted to three handicap starts so far, winning two over hurdles, including a very tough one in 2014, and running fourth under top weight over fences at Leopardstown�s Christmas meeting. Can�t quite cut it at the highest level but talented and robust enough to win a race like this under a fair weight, like the one he has been given here. Stamina is the issue, as three miles looks his outer limit on the available evidence but there is more to come from this eight-year-old



Ballynagour 40/1
Ballynagour

Jockey: T Scudamore Trainer: D Pipe Age: 10 Weight: 11st 2lb
Impressive winner at the Cheltenham Festival in 2014 but has been high in the weights ever since and his only subsequent win was a hurdles race in France. Has never won a race at three miles or further, so his stamina is in question, even though he ran well in a three-mile Grade One here a year ago. Form has been dire for most of this winter but better when seventh at the Festival and seems to peak in the spring.


Soll 50/1

Soll

Jockey: C O�Farrell Trainer: D Pipe Age: 11 Weight: 10st 11lb
Twice beaten around 40 lengths in this race, when seventh in 2013 and ninth last year. Stamina appeared to be the issue both times, as he travelled well for a long way. He also has a history of bursting blood vessels and connections must hope it doesn�t happen again. Has hit new heights since joining new stable about 15 months ago, winning three of last seven and showing admirable toughness on occasion. Is 13lb higher in the weights than last year and hard to believe he can overcome that to win, though likely to run well again to a point. ]]>
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