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    Default cheltenham trends day 1

    CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2024 -


    The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham�s four day Festival, which kicks off on the 15th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998, twelve winners have come from Ireland, with Faugheen, Jezki & Hurricane Fly taking the last 3 renewals.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-6-28
    6yo: 3-5-34
    7yo: 4-2-26
    8yo: 1-4-15
    9yo: 1-2-8
    10yo: 0-0-4
    11yo+: 0-1-10
    9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just 66.4% of total runners.
    The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.
    The only horse aged 10+ since 2005 to have finished placed was Hurricane Fly. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.

    horses that ran well in this aged 5


    Record of horses that had finished in first 4 as 5yos in following renewal:
    In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998
    In 1997 I�m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998
    In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002
    In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008
    In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009
    In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009
    In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010
    In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010


    Since 1997 there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8).

    Gender


    The 3 mares (0-0-3) to run in the past 10 renewals have been unplaced. Since 2000 only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It�s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.

    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in a grade 1 or 2)
    8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 160+ last time
    10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season


    7 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (3 exceptions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)
    8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (2 exceptions were 3rd in previous year's Champion Hurdle)
    8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)
    The 10 winners had collectively had 29 prior hurdles starts the year they won it. In the 28 starts they completed, they finished in first 3 in 27 of them.

    Last year�s race


    Faugheen won last year�s Champion Hurdle by a 1�L from Arctic Fire, before taking the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. He has gained 2 wins and 1 seconds from 3 runs in grade 1�s this season. Runner-up, Arctic, might have won the Aintree Hurdle but for falling next time but has won a grade 1 & grade 2 this season, 3rd Hurricane Fly was 2nd in a 3M grade 1 next time before disappointing in France. 4th, Jezki, won the Aintree Hurdle next time and then the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown. 5th, The New One, has gained 2 wins and 2nd in a grade 1 on 3 runs since.
    The combined subsequent hurdles record of 7 horses from last year to have runs since is 9-5-19. Subsequent chase form of those that have gone over fences: 2-1-4.
    The form next time out of the 8 horses, to come out of the race and run under NH rules since, reads 1F211175 (4-1-8).

    Cheltenham Festival Form


    Defending Champion Hurdler (Faugheen): 324693244 (0-4-9)
    Triumph Hurdle winner (Peace And Co): 612353F (1-3-7)
    Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 62131 (2-2-5)
    Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices to run in this: 35P03058P2 (0-3-10)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 3333
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 43
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Novices' Hurdle, finishing 21
    5 of 5 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival
    4 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (5 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme or Neptune)
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (exception was Hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)

    Other races


    Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 11613144 (4-1-8)
    Ryanair Hurdle (Nichols Canyon): 12061143 (3-2-8)
    Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 1400613143 (3-2-10)
    Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Arctic Fire): 211 (2-1-3)
    Morgiana Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 1F96143 (2-1-7)
    Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (Identity Thief): 5P0102232 (1-4-9)
    Contenders Hurdle winner: 06721 (1-1-5)
    Anniversary Hurdle winner (All Yours): 86135 (1-1-5)
    Christmas Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 500421 (1-1-6)
    Kingwell Hurdle winner: 386P1004 (1-1-8)
    WKD Hurdle winner (Identity Thief): 1 (1-0-1)
    International Hurdle winner (Old Guard): 62325435 (0-4-8)
    Mersey Novice Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 2 (0-1-1)
    Relkeel Hurdle winner (Camping Ground): 3 (0-1-1)
    Williamhill.com Hurdle winner (The New One): 735 (0-1-4)
    Greatwood Hurdle winner (Old Guard): 60257 (0-1-5)
    Champion Hurdle Trial winner (The New One): 437975 (0-1-6)
    Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 86 (0-0-2)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 1111
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing F321
    4 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 1112
    4 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 1114
    3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Hattons Grace Hurdle, finishing 311
    2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 11
    3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 13

    Trainers


    Irish trained runners (6-5-51) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.
    Willie Mullins (3-3-11) saddled Hurricane Fly to finish 1st-3rd-1st-4th-3rd in last 5 years and has also saddled the 1-2-3 in 2015, and will run first 2, Faugheen & Arctic Fire, once again.
    Nicky Henderson (2-6-16) has saddled 2 winners and 6 places from 16 runners in past 10 renewals.
    Paul Nicholls (1-1-8) trained Rock On Ruby to win this in 2012.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners get placed.

    Price


    6 of 10 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1
    Longer prices have held sway in this in past 9 years with only Willie Mullins bucking the trend with Hurricane Fly�s two wins at 11/4 & 13/8 & Faugheen at 4/5 being the only 3 recent winners priced shorter than 9/1.
    Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.92.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Gelding aged 6 to 9
    - Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
    - Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
    - Run 2 to 4 times this season
    - 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2015 Champion Hurdle
    - Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
    - Finished in first 3 in 2015 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2015 Festival
    - Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle
    - Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Ryanair Hurdle
    - British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle
    - Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time
    - Trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (10th February 2024)  


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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 1

    ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY TRENDS 2024


    The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 4 subsequent Champion Chase winners � Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes & Sprinter Sacre and last year�s winner, Un De Sceaux could turn out to be another subsequent champion chaser. Willie Mullins has been a head off winning the last 2 renewals and has short priced favourite, Douvan, in this year�s race, while the record of Paul Nicholls has been surprisingly poor in the Arkle in recent years.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-3-14
    6yo: 2-2-30
    7yo: 6-8-46
    8yo: 1-5-18
    9yo+: 0-0-5
    5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yos running in this (0-1-5 since racing on level weights).
    4 of last 5 winners aged 5 or 6 were French or German bred.
    In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.

    Gender


    Mares (0-1-3) have gained 1 place from their 3 runners however the 2 unplaced finishers were both priced 20/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.

    Breeding


    Irish Bred: 5-9-52
    French Bred: 4-4-32
    British Bred: 1-3-19
    German Bred: 0-2-6
    Other: 0-0-4
    Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side.
    4 winners bred in France were aged 5 to 7
    5 of 6 winners bred in Ireland or Britain were aged 7 or 8
    Progeny of King�s Theatre: 51322 (1-2-5)

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts (1 exception won on only previous chase last time, RPR of 143)
    8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last start
    10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs


    8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were unbeaten in 1 or 2 previous chase runs)
    7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
    10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races


    7 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season (3 exceptions had won grade 1 or 2 hurdles)
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle


    8 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
    5 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 3rd Supreme, 4th in Neptune & 2nd in a handicap hurdle and other 2 were having first course start)

    Other Races


    Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Ar Mad): 35P51144 (2-1-8)
    Kingmaker Novice Chase winner: 12626 (1-2-5)
    Irish Arkle winner (Douvan): 640331 (1-2-6)
    Craddockstown winner (Sizing John): 13 (1-1-2)
    Buck House Novice Chase winner (The Game Changer): 012 (1-1-3)
    CrownHotel-Bawtry.com Novices' Chase winner (Bouvreuil): 413 (1-1-3)
    Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 69135P8 (1-1-7)
    Pendil Novice Chase winner: 1 (1-0-1)
    Irish Stallions EBF Beginners Chase winner (Killultagh Vic): 1 (1-0-1)
    Download The Betdaq App Beginners Chase winner (Sizing John): 41 (1-0-2)
    Halloween Trophy winner (Violet Dancer): 26352 (0-3-5)
    Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Ar Mad): 729244 (0-2-6)
    Thurles.ie Beginners Chase winner (Ttebbob): 3 (0-1-1)
    At The Races App On Iphone Novices' Chase winner (L'Ami Serge): 2 (0-1-1)
    Kilbegnet EBF Novice Chase winner (The Game Changer): 2 (0-1-1)
    Previous season's Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Douvan): 42 (0-1-2)
    Lightning Novice Chase winner (Vaniteux): 35059 (0-1-5)
    Racing Post Arkle Trial Novice Chase winner (Garde La Victoire): F26F544P (0-1-8)
    Previous season's Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Douvan): 4U (0-0-2)
    Squareintheair.com Novices' Chase winner (Rock The World): 35 (0-0-2)
    Racing UK Anywhere Novices' Chase winner (Pain Au Chocolat): 896 (0-0-3)
    2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Arkle, finishing 21
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Mersey Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 2 Nicky Henderson-trained winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice chase, finishing 11
    Last 6 Irish-trained winners had finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
    5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival (3 Neptune, Supreme & World Hurdle)

    Trainers


    Nicky Henderson (2-3-9) trained Sprinter Sacre & Simonsig to win this in 2012 & 2013 and also saddled placed finishers in 2011 & 2015.
    Alan King (2-0-4) has trained backed to back winners in 2006 & 2007.
    Philip Hobbs (1-2-6) trained the winner in 2011 and has also saddled an additional 2 placed finishers.
    Willie Mullins (1-1-9) gained his first win in the race with Un De Sceaux in 2015.
    Henry De Bromhead (1-0-2) won this with Sizing Europe 2010.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-12) last trained the winner in 2003 but his 12 runners in past 10 years have produced no winners and just 1 place.
    Irish trained runners (3-5-31) have a fair record in the race, producing 3 winners from approximately 27.4% of the total runners, though they been responsible for 3 of the past 7 winners, as well as runner-up in 2013 and the 2nd & 3rd in 2014.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
    9 winners went off at single figure odds but Western Warhorse�s 33/1 success was the big shock in last 10 years.
    Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 4, though over past 10 years show a level stakes loss of 5.09.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - French bred aged 6 or 7, or Irish bred aged 7
    - Run in 2 to 4 chases this season
    - Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
    - Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
    - Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
    - Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    - Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
    - Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)
    - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2015 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h�dl)
    - Finished in first 2 in November, Wayward Lad and/or Henry VIII Novice Chase
    - Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Philip Hobbs
    - Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
    - From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1).

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 1

    SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2024


    The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 15th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices� Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 11 of the last 17 winners being trained in Ireland.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 0-1-5
    5yo: 5-12-86
    6yo: 4-6-63
    7yo: 1-1-20
    8yo+: 0-0-4
    No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 83.7% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.
    The only two 4yos to make the frame in past 15 years were Binocular (2nd in 2008) & Hors La Loi III (1st in 2000), both went on to win the Champion Hurdle.

    Gender


    Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from 4 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 5-9-75
    French bred: 3-7-38
    GB bred: 2-3-49
    USA bred: 0-1-7
    Other: 0-0-9
    French bred horses have won 3 of last 5 and filled 7 of 15 places in past 5 years.

    Recent/Past Form


    9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days
    9 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd)
    8 of 10 winners (last 8) posted an RPR of 141+ last time out


    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
    10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
    10 of 10 winners had not finished worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season


    5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle (2 others won grade 2 hurdles)
    7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 made racecourse debut over hurdles & other was rated 86 on flat)
    2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)

    Other Races


    Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Bleu Et Rouge): 311 (2-1-3)
    Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Min): 0311 (2-1-4)
    Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Its'afreebee): 31 (1-1-2)
    Coolmore EBF Stallions NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Brain Power): 31 (1-1-2)
    Bathwick Tyres Listed Novices' Hurdle winner: 12 (1-1-2)
    British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (North Hill Harvey): 10U2U (1-1-5)
    Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (Bellshill): 50102 (1-1-5)
    Champion Bumper winner (Moon Racer): 75341 (1-1-5)
    www.racinghomeforeaster.com Maiden Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 1 (1-0-1)
    Kells 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Moon Over Germany): 41 (1-0-2)
    I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Ball D'Arc): 169 (1-0-3)
    Tolworth Hurdle winner (Yorkhill): 014 (1-0-3)
    Feel The Rush at Betfair Novices' Hurdle winner: 0P145 (1-0-5)
    William Hill On Your Mobile Novices' Hurdle winner (Altior): 41988 (1-0-5)
    Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (Long Dog): 033 (0-2-3)
    Betfair Hurdle winner: 2520 (0-2-4)
    Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Long Dog): 00373 (0-2-5)
    Bet And Watch At Winner.co.uk Maiden Hurdle winner (Mister Miyagi): 3 (0-1-1)
    Events Bar Management Maiden Hurdle winner (Wait For Me): 402 (0-1-3)
    Colts & Fillies' Novices' Hurdle winner (Altior): 0P2 (0-1-3)
    Bet365 NH Maiden Hurdle winner (Buveur D'Air): 45 (0-0-2)
    Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Supasundae): 40 (0-0-2)
    Thornton Recycling Maiden Hurdle winner (A Toi Phil): 85 (0-0-2)
    bet365 Novices' Hurdle winner (Modus): 658 (0-0-3)
    Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (Altior): 04090 (0-0-5)
    Clayton Hotel Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle winner (Coney Island): 500077 (0-0-6)
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 1F
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90
    2 of 4 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11
    2 of 4 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    In the last 5 runnings of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, horses that had finished in first 5 in previous years Champion Bumper to then run in this have a record of 041136102 (3-2-9)

    Trainers


    Irish-trained horses (6-5-61) have taken 6 of the last 10 renewals, including last 3.
    Willie Mullins (4-1-20) trained the winner in 2007, 2013, 2014 & 2015.
    Paul Nicholls (2-1-11) has trained the winner twice in past 10 years, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter, he�s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.
    Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) & Eddie Harty (1-0-1) saddled the winners in 2010 & 2008 respectively.
    Nicky Henderson (0-8-17) has seen 8 of his 17 runners make the frame and has saddled the runner-up in in all 4 runnings between 2011 & 2014.

    Price


    Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 5 of the last 10 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
    Favourites (2-4-13) have won the last 2 but show a level stakes loss of 4.75 over past 10 years.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Won last time out in the past 55 days
    - Posted an RPR of 141+ last time
    - Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
    - Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
    - Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle (or won a grade 2)
    - Won a bumper or made racecourse debut over hurdles
    - Finished in first 5 in 2015 Champion Bumper
    - Won the Deloitte and/or Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins)

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 1

    NATIONAL HUNT NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2024


    The National Hunt Steeplechase is a novice event, run over 4 miles, and is restricted to amateur jockeys. Conditions of the race changed in 2010 as there was formerly a penalty structure for previous chase wins, which has now been scrapped, meaning the race now attracts higher class novices.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-1-27
    7yo: 5-10-69
    8yo: 3-6-48
    9yo: 1-2-26
    10yo: 0-1-8
    11yo+: 0-0-3


    7 & 8 year olds have won 8 of last 10 but have represented approximately 64.6% of total runners.

    Gender


    Mares (0-1-9) have gained 1 place from 9 runners.

    Breeding


    Irish Bred: 4-14-117
    GB Bred: 3-4-38
    French Bred: 2-2-23
    USA bred:
    Polish bred: 0-0-1
    No major trends to be found on the winners’ breeding.
    Record of progeny of Oscar: 16P1 (2-0-4)

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last chase start (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded chase last time)
    6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) posted an RPR of 140+ last time
    9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since July (exception was a second season chaser)
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a 3M+ chase
    8 of 10 winners had won a hurdle or chase over 3M+ (one exception had finished 2nd in previous season's Kim Muir)
    10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 11 chases


    9 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point


    5 of 7 British-trained winners had won or placed in Newbury chase over 2M 4F+

    Other Races


    Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novices' Chase winner (Shantou Flyer): 1 (1-0-1)
    Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shantou Flyer): 1 (1-0-1)
    CSP Novice Limited H'cap Chase winner (Local Show): 17U (1-0-3)
    Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Roi Des Francs): F29 (0-1-3)
    Buy Your 2024 Annual Membership Beginners Chase winner (Pleasant Company): P73 (0-1-3)
    Towton Novices' Chase winner (Blaklion): 6 (0-0-1)
    Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase winner (Blaklion): 6 (0-0-1)
    Paddy Power Paddys Numbers Win A Million Novice Chase winner (Lord Scoundrel): 4 (0-0-1)
    Betfred Mobile Hampton Listed Novices' Chase winner (Black Hercules): F5 (0-0-2)
    Ten Up Chase winner (Measureofmydreams): 90 (0-0-2)
    Record of horses that finished in first 5 in Topaz Novice Chase: 021F219 (2-2-7)
    3 of last 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase, finishing F51
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in CSP Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in Cheltenham Club Novice Chase, finishing F2
    2 of 2 second season chaser winners ran in Irish Grand National, both finishing 12th
    2 of 2 second season chaser winners ran in previous Kim Muir, finishing 72

    Trainers


    Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-10) has won 4 renewals since 2000 although not always with his first string (winners’ prices were 10/1, 25/1, 5/1 and 33/1). His last winner came in 2007 and his 5 runners since then have finished PUPP6.
    Alan King (2-1-9) trained the winner in 2008 & 2014 and saddled the 3rd in 2013.
    Gordon Elliot (2-0-3) trained the winner in 2011 & 2015.
    Willie Mullins (1-1-8) trained the winner in 2013, 3rd in 2014 & 4th in 2015.
    Rebecca Curtis (1-0-2) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-7) have also both saddled the winner in past 10 years.
    David Pipe (0-2-6) trained the runner-up in 2008 & 2015.
    Michael Hourigan (0-1-1) trained the winner in 1999 and his only runner in last 10 years was 3rd in 2015.
    Tony Martin (0-1-2) has saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 5th in 2014.
    The Sandra Hughes yard (0-1-3) has saddled 2 seconds from 4 runners since 2000.
    Mouse Morris (0-1-3), Nicky Henderson (0-1-3) & Venetia Williams (0-1-5) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-7) has a poor record in this, gaining just 1 place from 12 runners since 2000 (which included 3 favourites).
    Irish trained runners (3-11-48) have done well in this race recently, having won 3 of the last 5. In past 7 years they have accounted for the 2nd in 2009, the 2nd & 3rd in 2010, the winner in 2011, the 3rd & 4th in 2012, 1st & 2nd in 2013, 3rd in 2014 and 1st & 3rd in 2015.

    Jockeys


    Derek O'Connor (1-4-8) rode the winner in 2011 and has also been on the runner-up on 3 occasions in past 10 years, as well as the 3rd in 2015.
    Katie Walsh (1-1-4), Patrick Mullins (1-1-5) & Sam Waley-Cohen (1-1-5) have each ridden a winner and a placed finisher in past 7 runnings.
    Joshua Newman (1-0-2) & Jamie Codd (1-0-8) have ridden the past 2 winners.
    Nina Carberry (0-3-10) & William Biddick (0-2-6) have both ridden multiple placed finishers.

    Racing Tactics


    6 of 10 winners were held up towards the rear
    4 of 10 winners raced prominently

    Price


    Between 2003 & 2007, 4 of 5 winners were sent off 25/1 or bigger but since 2008 all 8 winners were priced between 5/1 & 14/1, with favourites taking 3 of last 5.


    Favourites (3-1-10) have won 3 of 10, giving a level stakes profit of 5.25.





    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 7 or 8


    - Finished in first 2 last time in past 50 days


    - Posted an RPR of 140+ last time


    - Run 4 to 8 times this season (or a second season chaser)


    - Previously run in 3 to 11 chases


    - Has won a race over 3M+


    - Finished in the first 2 in a chase over 3M+


    - Made debut in a point to point, bumper or hurdle


    - Trained in GB and won or placed in a Newbury Chase over 2M 4F or further


    - Trained in Ireland & ran in Topaz Novice Chase


    - Trained by Alan King, Gordon Elliot or David Pipe


    - Priced between 5/1 & 14/1.

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 1

    ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2024


    The Ultima Business Solutions Festival Trophy Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It�s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-3-14
    7yo: 3-10-42
    8yo: 4-2-49
    9yo: 1-9-47
    10yo: 2-3-31
    11yo+: 0-2-29
    10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 34 of 39 places
    horses aged 6 to 8: 7-15-105
    horses aged 9 or older: 3-14-107
    horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have filled 2 places from 29 runners in the past 10 renewals.

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 9-11-118
    British bred: 1-8-39
    French bred: 0-9-44
    Other: 0-1-11
    Irish bred horses have won 9 of last 10 from approximately 55.7% of total runners.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    horses carrying 11-5 or more: 1-5-39
    horses carrying 10-9 to 11-4: 6-17-101
    horses carrying 10-8 or lower: 3-7-72
    Only 3 horses have managed to carry 11-0+ to victory since 2000, 2 of those 3 had finished 2nd in a 3M grade 1 hurdle and the other was 6th in a previous Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle.
    Top Weight: 3P0787597PF7 (0-1-12)

    Official Ratings


    horses rated 140 or higher: 6-19-116
    horses rated 130 to 139: 2-12-77
    horses rated 129 or below: 2-0-19
    6 of last 8 winners were officially rated 140 to 146, they also accounted for 20 of 32 places in last 8 years.



    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
    7 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 133+ on last chase start
    8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had gained 1 to 3 previous wins over fences
    9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase (exception was a novice chaser that had finished 2nd in a grade 1 3M Hurdle)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
    9 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
    8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
    9 of 10 winners had previously contested a class 2 or graded race over 2M 5F+ at Cheltenham

    Other Races


    Richard Davis Memorial Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Upswing): 1 (1-0-1)
    Bet Bright Cheltenham Festival Fund Veterans' H�cap Chase winner (Saint Are): 17 (1-0-2)
    Sky Bet Chase winner (Ziga Boy): F1 (1-0-2)
    William Hill Handicap Chase winner (The Last Samuri): 22 (0-2-2)
    Ryman The Stationer Handicap Chase winner (Aachen): P2 (0-1-2)
    Freebets.com Trophy Chase winner (Annacotty): 50 (0-0-2)
    Betbright on Mobile Handicap Chase winner (Perfect Candidate): 09 (0-0-2)
    Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase winner (Drop Out Joe): 5P6 (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 055
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in previous season's World Series Hurdle, finishing 24
    2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P
    2 of last 3 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November

    Trainers


    Jonjo O�Neill (3-0-11) has saddled 3 winners (2009, 2012 & 2014) in past 10 years..
    David Pipe (1-3-14) trained the winner in 2008 and has also saddled The Package to be placed in 3 of last 6 runnings.
    Tony Martin (1-1-5) trained the winner in 2006 and 3rd in 2015, both had won/placed in Thyestes on previous start.
    Alan King (1-1-10) trained the winner in 2004 & 2011
    Neil Mulholland (1-0-2) & Colin Tizzard (1-0-6) trained the winners in 2015 & 2013 respectively.
    Nicky Henderson (0-5-13) last trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his 13 runners get placed in past 10 runnings.
    Henry De Bromhead (0-1-1), Lucinda Russell (0-1-2), Ian Williams (0-1-3), Gary Moore (0-1-4) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-7) have all saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-9), Venetia Williams (0-1-13), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-16) have managed just 2 places from their collective 38 runners since 2006.
    There had been no Irish trained (1-4-16) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003. Dun Doire then managed to repeat the feat in 2006. Last 2 Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.

    Price


    No strong trend on price, as 6 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1 but there has been 3 big shocks in the last 10 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007, a 33/1 in 2010 & a 28/1 in 2013.
    Favourites (1-5-13) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 7 to 10 (ideally 7 or 8)
    - Irish bred
    - Carrying 10-13 or less (or previously placed in a grade 1 hurdle over 3M)
    - Officially rated 140 to 146
    - Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
    - Posted an RPR of 133+ last time
    - Won over 3M+
    - First or second season chaser
    - Won 1 to 3 times over fences
    - Has run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 2)
    - Won a class 3 or better handicap chase
    - Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+
    - Finished in first 5 in 2015 World Series Hurdle and/or 2024 Cleeve Hurdle
    - Trained by Alan King, Jonjo O�Neill, Tony Martin or David Pipe.

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