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    Default cheltenham trends day 4

    CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS 2024


    The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 18th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. The key trends for the race seem to point to a horse aged 6 to 9 that finished 1st or 2nd in the King George, Lexus or Denman Chase this season.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:





    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-1-4
    7yo: 2-5-22
    8yo: 4-5-44
    9yo: 3-3-35
    10yo: 0-4-28
    11yo: 0-2-9
    12yo+: 0-0-2
    horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-105) have won the last 10 runnings.
    horses aged 10+ (0-6-39) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from approximately 27% of the total runners.
    5 of 6 placed finishers aged 10+ had won a previous Gold Cup or had won the previous season�s Aintree Grand National. The other had won 2 Thyestes Chases.

    Breeding


    Irish Bred: 6-8-68
    French Bred: 3-9-49
    British Bred: 1-3-24
    German Bred: 0-0-2
    American Bred 0-0-1
    Irish and French bred horses had dominated prior to 2015, winning the previous 19 renewals between them. Coneygree broke the sequence last year, becoming the first GB bred winner since Master Oats in 1995.

    Recent/Past Form


    7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exception were 2nd in Lexus, 5th in King George & 6th in Irish Hennessy)
    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (exception has won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season)
    8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start (1 exceptions posted an RPR of 177 on penultimate start)
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 starts
    9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 chases in their career (exception was Kauto Star winning it a second time)
    8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exceptions were Kauto Star winning it a second time & Coneygree winning it as a novice)
    9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had each finished 2nd in Lexus on only previous try at 3M+)
    10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
    6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase that season (exceptions were Imperial Commander beaten a short head in grade 1 Betfair Chase, War Of Attrition 2nd in grade 1 Lexus, Bobs Worth won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season & Lord Windermere in 2014)
    5 of 5 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase

    Previous Cheltenham Form


    Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 5022FP345P (0-3-10)
    RSA Chase winner (Don Poli): P19511 (3-0-6)
    JLT Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 2 (0-1-1)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 1311
    1 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 7th
    1 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 2nd
    1 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, in which he fell
    1 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 1st
    8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exceptions were Synchronised in 2012, who was placed in Midlands National on the Saturday of Cheltenham week the previous year and Coneygree, who missed previous season due to injury)
    7 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other 2 were Synchronised & Coneygree who was having first run at Festival)

    Other races


    King George winner (Cue Card): 121F1P347 (3-2-8)
    Denman Chase winner: 1183F1 (3-1-6)
    Lexus Chase winner (Don Poli): 00137153 (2-2-8)
    Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Smad Place): 61820106 (2-1-8)
    JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Don Cossack): 0133 (1-2-4)
    Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): 012PFPPF7 (1-1-9)
    Clonmel Oil Chase winner (Road To Riches): 1 (1-0-1)
    Star Chase winner (Don Cossack): 1P (1-0-2)
    Previous season's Killiney Novice Chase winner (Vautour): 22 (0-2-2)
    Bobbyjo Chase winner: 372 (0-2-3)
    Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Don Cossack): P34 (0-1-3)
    Previous season Topaz Novice Chase winner (Don Poli): 379 (0-1-3)
    Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 0P29 (0-1-4)
    BetBright Trial Chase winner (Smad Place): 26876 (0-1-5)
    Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Carlingford Lough): 004P2U9 (0-1-7)
    David Martin Graduation Chase winner (O'Faolains Boy): 45 (0-0-2)
    Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Saphir Du Rheu): F4 (0-0-2)
    Colin Parker Memorial Chase winner (Saphir Du Rheu): PU6 (0-0-3)
    Charlie Hall Chase winner (Cue Card): 50PF (0-0-4)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 1151
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 2117
    8 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season (6 of 8 were 1st or 2nd)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Denman Chase, finishing 111
    3 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 118
    2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 13
    2 of 5 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11

    Trainers


    Paul Nicholls (3-6-27) has trained 3 of the last 10 winners of this and seen a third of his runners make the places since 2006.
    Nicky Henderson (2-2-9) trained the winner in 2011 & 2013.
    Jonjo O�Neill (1-2-8) won this in 2012 with Synchronised and has also filled 2 other places.
    Jim Culloty (1-0-2) won it last year with Lord Windermere, while Mouse Morris (1-0-3) trained War Of Attrition to win the race in 2006.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) trained Imperial Commander to win in 2010.
    Willie Mullins (0-4-9) has found 4 places from 9 runners, including the runners-up spot in past 3 runnings.
    David Bridgwater (0-2-4) has saddled The Giant Bolster to finish 2nd, 4th & 3rd and pull up in past 4 runnings.
    Noel Meade (0-1-3) trained Road To Riches to finish 3rd in 2015 and also saddled Harbour Pilot to place in back to back renewals in 2003 & 2004.
    The Pipe Stable (0-0-4), Alan King (0-0-4) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 12 collective runners.
    Irish trained runners (2-6-22) won the race in 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but then struggled in next few years, failing to fill a single place between 2007 & 2012. Things have brightened up recently though as Sir Des Champs finished 2nd in 2013 & Lord Windermere & On His Own finished 1-2 in 2014 and Djakadam & Road To Riches finished 2nd & 3rd last year. They look to have their strongest raiding party in recent history this year.

    Price


    9 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
    Prior to Lord Windermere�s win last year, there has been no winner priced bigger than 8/1 since 2000. However in the past 10 years horses priced 14/1 or bigger have filled 8 of 30 places (1 winner, 3 seconds and 4 thirds).
    Favourites (4-3-10) have taken 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 3.25.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 to 9


    - Irish or French bred


    - Had 3 to 11 career chase starts (2 to 5 this season)


    - Finished in first 2 in all chase starts over 2M 6F+ this season


    - Second or third season chaser (or previous winner of Gold Cup)


    - Won last time out and posted RPR of 162+


    - Posted an RPR of 167+ in last 2 chase starts


    - Won over 3M+


    - Previously won a grade 1 chase (ideally this season)


    - Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2015 Festival (ideally the 2015 RSA)


    - Finished in first 2 in Hennessy Gold Cup, Betfair and/or Denman Chase


    - Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season


    - From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)


    - Trained by Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 4

    TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS 2024


    The JCB Triumph Hurdle kicks off the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. The race has changed slightly in recent years as the size of the field has decreased with the introduction of the Fred Winter handicap hurdle for 4yos. In the past 10 years the race has been tended to be won by a horse prominent in the market and come from one of the big British yards, though 2 of last 3 winners of the race were trained in Ireland.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



    Age
    Race for 4yos

    Gender


    Fillies (0-1-11) have gained 1 place from 11 runners in past 10 runnings and haven�t won this since 2000.

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 5-9-62
    French bred: 3-6-55
    British bred: 1-3-50
    USA bred: 1-1-7
    German bred: 0-1-6
    8 of 10 winners were by a group 1-winning sire (1 exception�s sire hadn�t run in a group 1 and other was a group 2 winner, beaten a short head in Queen Anne)
    All 3 French bred winners were trained by Nicky Henderson, as well as 3 of the other 6 placed.
    Progeny of Poliglote: 22 (0-2-2)

    Recent/Past Form


    10 of 10 winners ran the past 18 to 50 days
    7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions placed in grade 1 Spring Juvenile)
    9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher (exception 2nd in a grade 1 last time)
    8 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 7+ lengths (2 exceptions gained their one hurdles win by over 2 lengths)
    10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 132+ in one or both of last 2 runs
    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles (exception won grade 2 Adonis on one hurdles run)
    7 of 10 winners had run on the flat (2 of 3 exceptions made their racecourse debut over hurdles)
    5 of 5 winners that ran on flat in Britain or Ireland had a flat official rating of 84 or higher
    7 of 8 British-trained winners had won a hurdle at Newbury, Kempton or Market Rasen
    The 10 winners had collectively run in 30 hurdles races prior to winning this, they finished in first 3 in 28 of those 30 starts (2 exceptions were on hurdles debuts).

    Other Races


    Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Protek Des Flos): 1228361 (2-3-7)
    Adonis Hurdle winner: F41196 (2-0-6)
    JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Sceau Royal): 5194923 (1-3-7)
    Prestbury Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Wolf Of Windlesham): 2127426 (1-3-7)
    Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Footpad): 80739022135 (1-3-10)
    Betfred Mobile Hurdle winner (Fixe La Kap): 132 (1-2-3)
    Champion Hats Juvenile Hurdle winner (Adrien Du Pont): 12920 (1-2-5)
    Ascot Supporting Our Local Community Juvenile Hurdle winner (Gibralfaro): 103F2 (1-2-5)
    Summit Juvenile Hurdle winnner (Who Dares Wins): 01 (1-0-2)
    Winner App Juvenile Hurdle winner (Duke Of Medina): 01 (1-0-2)
    Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle winner (Rashaan): 01P (1-0-3)
    Betfred Home of Goals Galore Juvenile Hurdle winner (Akavit): 1P0 (1-0-3)
    Blackmore Building Juvenile Hurdle winner (Clan Des Obeaux): P1079 (1-0-5)
    Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Adrien Du Pont): 227 (0-2-3)
    Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Tommy Silver): 04383 (0-2-5)
    Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 0204683 (0-2-7)
    Kerry Group 3-Y-O Hurdle winner (Rashaan): 3 (0-1-1)
    Racingfx.co.uk Juvenile Hurdle winner (Leoncavalloi): 2006 (0-1-4)
    Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Leoncavallo): 50836 (0-1-5)
    Paddy Power Download Our New App 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Ivanovich Gorbatov): 00 (0-0-2)
    William Hill Winter Festival Juvenile Hurdle winner (Gibralfaro): 64 (0-0-2)
    Ladbrokes 4yo Hurdle winner (Footpad): F8 (0-0-2) Gow 24 Jan
    William Hill - No.1 Downloaded Betting App Juvenile Hurdle winner (Seven Kingdoms): 60 (0-0-2)
    Watch Racing UK Free Last Chance Juvenile Hurdle winner (Akavit): 850 (0-0-3)
    Chatteris Fen Trophy 32Red Juvenile Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 54P7 (0-0-4)
    Q Associates Juvenile Hurdle winner (Kasakh Noir): 600P49 (0-0-6)
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle last time, finishing 312
    2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in the Adonis Hurdle last time, finishing 11
    2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Wendsleydale Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 22
    3 of 10 winners gained their first win over hurdles in a 2M 1/2F juvenile hurdle at Newbury
    3 of 10 winners gained first hurdles win at Market Rasen
    All 4 Irish-trained winners in past 20 years had finished 1st or 2nd in Spring Juvenile on previous start

    Trainers


    British-trained runners: 8-14-124
    Irish-trained runners: 2-6-52
    French-trained runners: 0-0-4
    Between 2003 & 2012, British-trained runners had won all 10 runnings, however Irish-trained runners won the 2013 & 2014 renewals. The bigger British yards have fairly dominated this race.
    Nicky Henderson (3-4-14) has trained the 3 of last 10 winners, and saddled the first 3 home in 2015.
    Paul Nicholls (2-2-15), Alan King (1-4-13) & Philip Hobbs (1-2-4) have each trained 2 of the last 12 winners.
    Gordon Elliot (1-0-5) trained the winner in 2014.
    Willie Mullins (0-1-14) trained the winner in 2002 but has only seen one of his 14 runners in past 10 years make the frame.

    Price


    Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H�cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting 9 of 11 years. The 2 winners to be priced 10/1 or bigger had been beaten in the Spring Juvenile on previous start.


    Favourites (2-4-10) have only won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.50.






    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Sired by a group 1 winner


    - Posted an RPR of 132+ last time out


    - Won last time out (or placed in a grade 1)


    - Run 2 to 6 times over hurdles


    - Won at least half their hurdles starts and never finished outside first 3 when completing


    - Won at class 3 or higher


    - Won or placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (or having first run in a graded hurdle)


    - Won a hurdles race by 7 or more lengths


    - Has run on the flat & officially rated 84+


    - Won the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle


    - Finished in first 3 in Wensleydale and/or Spring Juvenile Hurdle


    - Won a Juvenile Hurdle at Newbury, Market Rasen or Kempton


    - Trained by Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls


    - From first 4 in the betting.

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 4

    ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2024


    The Albert Bartlett Novices� Hurdle, which is run over 3 miles, was first run as a grade 2 in 2005 but was elevated to grade 1 status in 2008. There will be many horses that will hold entries in this as well as the Neptune Novices� Hurdle and so the picture for this race will become clearer once the declarations for the Neptune come out.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age
    5yo: 1-5-38
    6yo: 5-8-81
    7yo: 4-4-43
    8yo+: 0-3-19
    9 of 10 winners were aged 6 or 7, though that age group represented 68.5% of the total runners, so not surprising. The two previous 5yo winners of this were both French bred.

    Gender


    Mares (0-1-6) have gained 1 place from their 6 runners, all of whom were priced 12/1 or above.

    Breeding


    Irish bred: 8-16-125
    French bred: 2-2-24
    German bred: 0-1-3
    GB bred: 0-1-28
    American bred: 0-0-1
    Irish bred have won 8 of 10 however they have represented 69% of total runners whereas French bred horse have a proportionally better record, winning 2 of 10 from 13.3% of total runners. Just 1 of the 28 British bred horses to run in this have made the places.
    King's Theatre progeny: 10P612F8 (2-1-8) - one other winner out of a King's Theatre mare
    Oscar progeny: 09160P8412 (2-1-10)
    Milan progeny: 21 (1-1-2)
    Presenting progeny: 970013 (1-1-6)
    Martaline progeny: 01 (1-0-2)

    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (1 exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers & other was 3rd in a grade 2 Slaney novice hurdle)
    10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts
    8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time (2 exceptions posted career high RPR of 139)
    9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over hurdles


    8 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in a grade 2)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
    10 of 10 winners had not run on the flat
    7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (1 exception was 2nd in a bumper on debut and other 2 made racecourse debut in a hurdles race)
    5 of 6 British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception was having first course start)
    4 of 4 Irish-trained winners had won a hurdles race at Galway or Limerick

    Other Races


    Bristol Novice Hurdle winner (Unowhatimeanharry): 141P2FP (2-1-7)
    Dorans Pride Novice Hurdle winner (Up For Review): 1PU1 (2-0-4)
    Paddy Power Collect Acca Insurance EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Moylisha Tim): 2P8U1 (1-1-5)
    Challow Novice Hurdle winner (Barters Hill): 1P (1-0-2)
    Hyde Novice Hurdle winner (Shantou Village): 1P4 (1-0-3)
    Record of horses that won or placed in Hyde Novice Hurdle: 2111P104P (4-1-9)
    Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle winner (Champers On Ice): 1P (1-0-2)
    Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 3P2F3 (0-3-5)
    Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle winner (A Toi Phil): 22 (0-2-2)
    Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle highest finisher: 32162U1 (2-3-7)
    Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (Thomas Hobson): 832 (0-2-3)
    Surehaul Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle winner (Arkwrisht): 3 (0-1-1)
    EBF Stallions "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle winner (Duke Des Champs): 4F (0-0-2)
    Caroline Bermingham & Claire Gibbs Birthday Novice Hurdle winner (Open Eagle): P4 (0-0-2)
    Charlotte Cole Memorial Maiden Hurdle winner (Ballydine): 089 (0-0-3)
    W.T. O'Grady Memorial EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Westend Star): 478 (0-0-3)
    Lawlor's Hotel Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Bellshill): 0PF (0-0-3)
    Cork Stayers Novice Hurdle winner (Gangster): 06P7 (0-0-4)
    River Don Novice Hurdle winner (Barters Hill): 8587P (0-0-5)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Hyde Novice Hurdle, finishing 1223 (none of last 5)
    3 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 111
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Bristol Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, finishing 22

    Trainers


    Margaret Mullins (1-1-2) saddled the winner in 2015 and her other runner in this was placed.
    Nicky Henderson (1-1-8) trained the first 2 home in 2011 while Alan King (1-1-8) has also gained a win and a place from his runners in this.
    Lucinda Russell (1-0-1) & Rebecca Curtis (1-0-6) have both trained the winner in past 5 years.
    Willie Mullins (0-4-18) has had filled a place in 4 of last 7 renewals, although the last 3 favourites to be beaten in this race came from the Mullins yard.
    Paul Nicholls (0-3-9) has filled 3 places from 9 runners.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-2) saddled No More Heroes to finish an unlucky 3rd in 2015.
    Sandra Hughes yard (0-1-4), Colin Tizzard (0-1-5) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-8) have all saddled a placed finisher in one of the last 5 runnings.
    Irish trained horses (4-9-53) have won 4 of last 10 from approximately 29.3% of total runners. They have been responsible for first 4 home in 2015 and the 1st & 3rd in 2014.

    Price
    No strong trend on prices, with 7 winners going off at 9/1 or shorter, however 3 of last 6 winners were sent off at 33/1, 33/1 & 14/1.
    Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the 10 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 0.37.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the 10 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 6 or 7 (or a 5yo French bred)
    - Irish or French bred
    - Ideally sired by King's Theatre, Oscar or Milan
    - Finished in first 2 last time out
    - Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
    - Has had 3 to 6 runs over hurdles
    - Has won a graded hurdle
    - Won over 2M 4F+
    - Finished in first 3 in Hyde Novice Hurdle
    - Finished in first 2 in Bristol, Classic and/or Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle
    - Had not run under flat rules (ideally has won a bumper)
    - Course winner (or trained in Ireland)
    - Trained in Ireland & won a hurdle at Limerick or Galway (ideally by Mags Mullins)
    - Willie Mullins has a poor record in this race.

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 4

    COUNTY HURDLE TRENDS 2024


    The Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle is a grade 3 handicap run over 2M 1F. It is now the second race on day 4 and is always a wide open affair. Paul Nicholls and Irish trainers have been responsible for the last 10 winners.





    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 4-9-62
    6yo: 4-5-80
    7yo: 0-12-63
    8yo: 1-1-29
    9yo: 1-1-19
    10yo+: 0-2-13
    Horses aged 5 or 6: 8-14-142
    Horses aged 7 or older: 2-16-124
    In the past seven years 28 of 32 places were filled by horses aged 5 to 7 (2 of 4 exceptions had finished in first 5 in a previous running of this race)

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


    Horses carrying 11-2 or more: 1-5-71
    Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-1: 6-11-83
    Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 3-14-112
    8 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 11-1
    Spirit Leader (2003) & Wicklow Brave (2015) has been the only 2 winners in past 15 years to carry more than 11-1.
    Record of horses allotted a top weight of 11-8+ in last 10 renewals is 000005000408 (0-1-12)


    Horses carrying a penalty: 51060500 (1-0-8), level stakes loss of 5.00.



    Official Ratings


    Horses rated 141 or higher: 0-6-71
    Horses rated 130 to 140: 10-21-168
    Horses rated 129 or lower: 0-3-27
    Horses officially rated 130 to 140 have won the last 10 renewals and accounted for 31 of 40 places in the last 10 years.

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
    7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 130+ last time
    10 of 10 winners had run earlier that calendar year
    10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times since August
    10 of 10 winners had previously contested 4 to 14 hurdles races
    10 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers
    6 of 7 Irish-trained winners were 2nd season hurdlers
    3 of 3 British-trained winners had run in a novice hurdle earlier that season
    10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (5 had yet to win one)
    7 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdle (3 exceptions had finished 3rd in Boylesports Hurdle or Betfair Hurdle)
    4 of 10 winners had previously run at the Festival, all 3 unplaced (2 in Fred Winter, 1 Triumph and 1 in Supreme)
    Only 1 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
    9 of 10 winners had contested a handicap hurdle worth at least 16K that season
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a hurdle worth 16K+ that season



    Other Races


    FKM Group Supporting Temple Street Hospital H'cap Hurdle winner (Blue Hell): 1 (1-0-1)
    Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner (Solstice Star): 1 (1-0-1)
    Coral.ie Hurdle winner (Henry Higgins): 00100 (1-0-5)
    Bet365 Novices' Hurdle winner (Modus): 3 (0-1-1)
    Onus Energy Novices' Handicap Hurdle winner (A Hare Breath): 29 (0-1-2)
    Elite Hurdle winner (Irving): 83 (0-1-2)
    Toteliveinfo.com Handicap Hurdle winner (Kayf Blanco): 00 (0-0-2)
    Gerry Fielden winner (Sternrubin): 80 (0-0-2)
    Canaccord Genuity Handicap Hurdle winner (Winner Massagot): 050 (0-0-3)
    Record of horses that finished in top 5 in the Boylesports Hurdle: 000010001000150 (3-0-15)
    Record of horse that finished in first 5 in Sharp Novices' Hurdle: 071071 (2-0-6)
    4 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Coral.ie H'cap Hurdle, finishing 3013
    2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in FKM Group Supporting Temple Street Hospital H'cap Hurdle, finishing 15
    2 of 3 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in Sharp Novice Hurdle, finishing 34
    2 of 10 winners ran in Betfair Hurdle, finishing 30

    Racing Tactics


    9 of 10 winners were held up in rear or in midfield

    Trainers


    Willie Mullins (3-5-18) has won 3 of the last 6 runnings, had no runner in 2012 and saddled the runner-up in 2013, and 2nd & 4th in 2014. 2 of his 3 winners had their last 2 starts in the FKM Group Supporting Temple Street Hospital H'cap Hurdle and Coral.ie Hurdle.
    Paul Nicholls (3-3-15) has trained 4 of the last 12 winners of this race (all winners aged 5 or 6).
    Tony Martin (1-2-5) trained the winner in 2013, 2nd in 2008 & 3rd in 2015.
    Tom Mullins (1-0-3) trained Alderwood to win this in 2012.
    Philip Hobbs (0-5-15) has seen 5 of his 15 runners make the frame since 2006.
    Alan King (0-2-7) has filled 2 places and 2 fifths from 7 runners.
    Gordon Elliot (0-2-9) has saddled a placed finisher in 2012 & 2013 and also 5th in 2014, while Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-9) has also saddled a couple of placed finishers in this.
    Nicky Henderson (0-1-19) won this race twice in the 90’s but has managed just 1 places from 19 runners since 2006.
    Noel Meade (0-0-10) & David Pipe (0-0-9) have failed to fill a single place from their collective 91 runners.
    Irish trained runners (7-11-78) have won 7 of the last 10 runnings and filled the first 6 places in 2015.

    Price


    Last 9 winners were sent off 10/1 or bigger, with 5 winners priced between 20/1 & 50/1 in past 8 years.
    Favourites (1-2-12) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.



    Summary:


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


    - Aged 5 or 6


    - Carrying 10-10 to 11-1


    - Officially rated 130 to 140


    - Previously contested 4 to 14 hurdles races


    - Has had a run in 2024


    - Run at least 3 times & placed in a handicap hurdle worth 16K+ this season


    - First or second season hurdlers


    - Run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles


    - Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles (ideally won none)


    - Won a class 3 or higher hurdle


    - Finished in first 5 in Sharp Novices’, Coral.ie and/or Betfair Hurdles


    - Tends to be held up


    - Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins or Tony Martin)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (14th March 2024)  


  5. DF VIP Member

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 4

    Jeez, have you seen how many horses Mullins has in the first race? 9!!

  6. DF VIP Member
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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 4

    shocking

  7. DF Member mitel's Avatar
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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 4

    Can't you just tell us who is going to win?

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    Default Re: cheltenham trends day 4

    Quote Originally Posted by mitel View Post
    Can't you just tell us who is going to win?

    no work it out yourself,,

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